Assessment of the probability of bankruptcy of companies using discriminant analysis and neural networks

Authors

  • Oksana L. Tymoshchuk The Department of Mathematical Methods of System Analysis of Educational and Scientific Complex "Institute for Applied System Analysis" of the National Technical University of Ukraine "Igor Sikorsky Kyiv Polytechnic Institute", Kyiv, Ukraine https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1863-3095
  • Kseniia M. Dorundiak The Department of Mathematical Methods of System Analysis of Educational and Scientific Complex "Institute for Applied System Analysis" of the National Technical University of Ukraine "Igor Sikorsky Kyiv Polytechnic Institute", Kyiv, Ukraine https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3198-0932

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.20535/SRIT.2308-8893.2018.2.03

Keywords:

industrial company, forecasting, probability of bankruptcy, discriminant analysis, neural network

Abstract

The models of discriminant analysis and artificial neural networks for forecasting and calculating the probability of bankruptcy of companies are investigated. The definition and essence of the term "bankruptcy", the main causes of the financial crisis of Ukrainian companies and statistical data reflecting the dynamics of bankruptcies of Ukrainian companies in recent years are analyzed. A model of an artificial neural network of the perceptron type was developed and a comparative analysis with models of Ukrainian economists was made using examples of financial analysis of several well-known Ukrainian companies. The advantages and problems of application of the considered models, as well as their practical importance in the current economic conditions, are analyzed.

Author Biographies

Oksana L. Tymoshchuk, The Department of Mathematical Methods of System Analysis of Educational and Scientific Complex "Institute for Applied System Analysis" of the National Technical University of Ukraine "Igor Sikorsky Kyiv Polytechnic Institute", Kyiv

Oksana Tymoshchuk,

an assistant professor, Ph.D. in Technical Sciences, the acting head of the Department of Mathematical Methods of System Analysis of Educational and Scientific Complex "Institute for Applied System Analysis" of the National Technical University of Ukraine "Igor Sikorsky Kyiv Polytechnic Institute", Kyiv, Ukraine.

Kseniia M. Dorundiak, The Department of Mathematical Methods of System Analysis of Educational and Scientific Complex "Institute for Applied System Analysis" of the National Technical University of Ukraine "Igor Sikorsky Kyiv Polytechnic Institute", Kyiv

Kseniia Dorundiak,

a student of the Department of Mathematical Methods of System Analysis of Educational and Scientific Complex "Institute for Applied System Analysis" of the National Technical University of Ukraine "Igor Sikorsky Kyiv Polytechnic Institute", Kyiv, Ukraine.

References

Trydid O.M. Ekonomiko-matematychni modeli otsinky finansovoho stanu sub’yektiv hospodarjuvannja: monohr. / O.M. Trydid, O.H. Tyzhnenko, L.O. Tyzhnenko. — K.: UBS NBU, 2011. — 213 s.

Matvijchuk A.V. Nechitki, nejromerezhevi ta dyskryminantni modeli diahnostuvannja mozhlyvosti bankrutstva pidpryyemstv / A.V. Matvijchuk // Nejronechitki tekhnolohiyi modeljuvannja v ekonomitsi. — 2013. — № 2. — S. 71–118.

Bidjuk P.I. Analiz ryzyku bankrutstva pidpryyemstv z vykorystannjam chitkykh ta nechitkykh modelej / P.I. Bidjuk, V.V. Vertelets'kyj, A.O. Zhyrova // Ekonomichnyj visnyk Natsional'noho tekhnichnoho universytetu Ukrayiny "Kyyivs'kyj politekhnichnyj instytut". — 2015. — № 12. — S. 477–490.

Zakon Ukrayiny "Pro vidnovlennja platospromozhnosti borzhnyka abo vyznannja joho bankrutom" vid 14 travnja 1992 roku №2343-XII // Vidomosti Verkhovnoyi Rady Ukrayiny. — 1992. — № 31. — 440 s.

Ivanilov O.S. Ekonomika pidpryyemstva: pidruch. / O.S. Ivanilov. — K.: Tsentr uchbovoyi lit-ry, 2009. — 728 s.

Trots I.V. Systema poperedzhennja ta ekonomichni naprjamy zapobihannja bankrutstvu pidpryyemstv: avtoref. dys. na zdobuttja nauk. stupenja. kand. ekon. nauk: spets. 08.00.04 "Ekonomika ta upravlinnja pidpryyemstvamy (za vydamy ekonomichnoyi dijal'nosti)" / I.V. Trots. — Khmel'n.: Khmel'nyts'kyj nats. un-t, 2016. — 21 s.

Tereshchenko O.O. Finansova sanatsija ta bankrutstvo pidpryyemstv: navch. posib. / O.O. Tereshchenko. — K.: KNEU, 2009. — 412 s.

Downloads

Published

2018-06-20

Issue

No. 2 (2018)

Section

Progressive information technologies, high-efficiency computer systems

License

This is an open access journal which means that all content is freely available without charge to the user or his/her institution. Users are allowed to read, download, copy, distribute, print, search, or link to the full texts of the articles in this journal without asking prior permission from the publisher or the author. This is in accordance with the BOAI definition of open access.