Decision-tree and ensemble-based mortality risk models for hospitalized patients with COVID-19

Authors

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.20535/SRIT.2308-8893.2023.1.02

Keywords:

COVID-19, decision-making system, decision tree, ML-ensemble, ensemble of classification models

Abstract

The work is devoted to studying SARS-CoV-2-associated pneumonia and the investigating of the main indicators that lead to the patients’ mortality. Using the good-known parameters that are routinely embraced in clinical practice, we obtained new functional dependencies based on an accessible and understandable decision tree and ML ensemble of classifiers models that would allow the physician to determine the prognosis in a few minutes and, accordingly, to understand the need for treatment adjustment, transfer of the patient to the emergency department. The accuracy of the resulting ensemble of models fitted on actual hospital patient data was in the range of 0.88–0.91 for different metrics. Creating a data collection system with further training of classifiers will dynamically increase the forecast’s accuracy and automate the doctor’s decision-making process.

Author Biographies

Yaroslav Vyklyuk, Lviv Polytechnic National University, Lviv

Doctor of Technical Sciences, a professor at the Department of Artificial Intelligence Systems of Lviv Polytechnic National University, Lviv, Ukraine.

Svitlana Levytska, Bukovinian State Medical University, Chernivtsi

Doctor of Medical Sciences, a professor at the Department of Pediatric Surgery and Otorhinolaryngology of Bukovinian State Medical University, Chernivtsi, Ukraine.

Denys Nevinskyi, Lviv Polytechnic National University, Lviv

Associate professor, Candidate of Technical Sciences (Ph.D.), an assistant of the Department of Electronics and Information Technology of the Institute of Telecommunications, Radioelectronics and Electronic Engineering of Lviv Polytechnic National University, Lviv, Ukraine.

Kateryna Hazdiuk, Yuriy Fedkovych Chernivtsi National University, Chernivtsi

Ph.D., an assistant professor at the Department of Computer Systems Software of Yuriy Fedkovych Chernivtsi National University, Chernivtsi, Ukraine.

Miroslav Škoda, DTI University, Dubnica nad Vahom

Ph.D., Vice-Rector for International Relations and Accreditation of DTI University, Dubnica nad Vahom, Slovakia.

Stanislav Andrushko, Chernivtsi Central Hospital, Chernivtsi

Otolaryngologist at Chernivtsi Central Hospital, Chernivtsi, Ukraine.

Maryna Palii, Chernivtsi Central Hospital, Chernivtsi

Otolaryngologist at Chernivtsi Central Hospital, Chernivtsi, Ukraine.

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Published

2023-03-30

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Decision making and control in economic, technical, ecological and social systems