The algorithm for predicting the cryptocurrency rate taking into account the influence of posts of a group of famous people in social networks

Authors

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.20535/SRIT.2308-8893.2023.2.02

Keywords:

cryptocurrency exchange rate, forecasting algorithms, social media posts, group of experts, “main” expert, information technology of intelligent analysis

Abstract

This article presents an algorithm for predicting the rate of a selected cryptocurrency, taking into account the posts of a group of famous people in a particular social network. The celebrities chosen as experts, i.e., famous personalities whose posts on social networks were studied, are either familiar with the financial industry, particularly the cryptocurrency market, or some cryptocurrency. The dataset used was the actual rates of the cryptocurrency in question for the selected period and the statistics of expert posts in the selected social network. The study used methods such as the full probability formula and the Bayesian formula. It was found that posts by famous people on social media differently affected cryptocurrency rates. The “main” expert was identified, and his posts were used to forecast the selected cryptocurrency’s rate.

Author Biographies

Petro Bidyuk, Educational and Research Institute for Applied System Analysis of the National Technical University of Ukraine "Igor Sikorsky Kyiv Polytechnic Institute", Kyiv

Doctor of Technical Sciences, a professor at the Department of Mathematical Methods of System Analysis of Educational and Research Institute for Applied System Analysis of the National Technical University of Ukraine "Igor Sikorsky Kyiv Polytechnic Institute", Kyiv, Ukraine.

Olena Gavrilenko, National Technical University of Ukraine "Igor Sikorsky Kyiv Polytechnic Institute", Kyiv

Candidate of Physical and Mathematical Sciences (Ph.D.), an associate professor at the Department of Information Systems and Technologies of the Faculty of Informatics and Computer Engineering of the National Technical University of Ukraine "Igor Sikorsky Kyiv Polytechnic Institute", Kyiv, Ukraine.

Mykhailo Myagkyi, National Technical University of Ukraine "Igor Sikorsky Kyiv Polytechnic Institute", Kyiv

Ph.D. student at the National Technical University of Ukraine "Igor Sikorsky Kyiv Polytechnic Institute", Kyiv, Ukraine.

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Published

2023-06-30

Issue

Section

Progressive information technologies, high-efficiency computer systems