Uncertainties in data processing, forecasting and decision making

Authors

  • Liudmyla Levenchuk Educational and Research Institute for Applied System Analysis of the National Technical University of Ukraine "Igor Sikorsky Kyiv Polytechnic Institute", Kyiv, Ukraine https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8600-0890
  • Oxana Tymoshchuk Educational and Research Institute for Applied System Analysis of the National Technical University of Ukraine "Igor Sikorsky Kyiv Polytechnic Institute", Kyiv, Ukraine https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1863-3095
  • Vira Huskova Educational and Research Institute for Applied System Analysis of the National Technical University of Ukraine "Igor Sikorsky Kyiv Polytechnic Institute", Kyiv, Ukraine https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7637-201X
  • Petro Bidyuk Educational and Research Institute for Applied System Analysis of the National Technical University of Ukraine "Igor Sikorsky Kyiv Polytechnic Institute", Kyiv, Ukraine https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7421-3565

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.20535/SRIT.2308-8893.2023.3.05

Keywords:

mathematical model, statistical data uncertainties, system analysis principles, forecasting, decision support system

Abstract

Forecasting, dynamic planning, and current statistical data processing are defined as the process of estimating an enterprise’s current state on the market compared to other competing enterprises and determining further goals as well as sequences of actions and resources necessary for reaching the goals stated. In order to perform high-quality forecasting, it is proposed to identify and consider possible uncertainties associated with data and expert estimates. This is one of the system analysis principles to be hired for achieving high-quality final results. A review of some uncertainties is given, and an illustrative example showing improvement of the final result after considering possible stochastic uncertainty is provided.

Author Biographies

Liudmyla Levenchuk, Educational and Research Institute for Applied System Analysis of the National Technical University of Ukraine "Igor Sikorsky Kyiv Polytechnic Institute", Kyiv

Assistant at the Department of Mathematical Methods of System Analysis of Educational and Research Institute for Applied System Analysis of the National Technical University of Ukraine "Igor Sikorsky Kyiv Polytechnic Institute", Kyiv, Ukraine.

Oxana Tymoshchuk, Educational and Research Institute for Applied System Analysis of the National Technical University of Ukraine "Igor Sikorsky Kyiv Polytechnic Institute", Kyiv

Associate professor, Candidate of Technical Sciences (Ph.D.), the head of the Department of Mathematical Methods of System Analysis of Educational and Research Institute for Applied System Analysis of the National Technical University of Ukraine "Igor Sikorsky Kyiv Polytechnic Institute", Kyiv, Ukraine.

Vira Huskova, Educational and Research Institute for Applied System Analysis of the National Technical University of Ukraine "Igor Sikorsky Kyiv Polytechnic Institute", Kyiv

Ph.D., an assistant at the Department of Mathematical Methods of System Analysis of Educational and Research Institute for Applied System Analysis of the National Technical University of Ukraine "Igor Sikorsky Kyiv Polytechnic Institute", Kyiv, Ukraine.

Petro Bidyuk, Educational and Research Institute for Applied System Analysis of the National Technical University of Ukraine "Igor Sikorsky Kyiv Polytechnic Institute", Kyiv

Doctor of Technical Sciences, a professor at the Department of Mathematical Methods of System Analysis of Educational and Research Institute for Applied System Analysis of the National Technical University of Ukraine "Igor Sikorsky Kyiv Polytechnic Institute", Kyiv, Ukraine.

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Published

2023-09-29

Issue

Section

Decision making and control in economic, technical, ecological and social systems