System modeling and forecast of environmental conditions of Kyiv based on statistical data of space monitoring and ground-based observations
Abstract
It was shown that the Forrester-Graham urban dynamics model could be used to evaluate the environment of the city of Kiev. The modified simulation model was developed which included the ability to incorporate the Earth remote sensing information and displayed the change dynamics of the urban landscape structure and some eco-social factors, namely: residential buildings areas, roads, the total area of vegetation, unused land and construction sites, the number of industrial and commercial enterprises, greenhouse gases emissions, the area covered with water, the building density, population. Based on this model, the integrated evaluation was made of the environment of the city of Kiev during 1994 – 2013 and the forecast until 2025 was given. The model can be used as a scientific basis for substantiation and formation of techniques for complex environmental assessment of urban areas using the Earth remote sensing information.References
Metodologiya i metody otsenki sostoyaniya gorodskoy sredy / Otv. Red. G.L. Koff, E..А. Likhachёva, D.А. Timofeyev. M.: Media-press, 2006. — 200 s.
Lyal’ko V.I., Fedorovskiy А.D., Popov M.А. i dr. Ispol’zovaniye dannykh sputnikovoy s”yemki dlya izucheniya prirodoresursnykh problem // Kosmichni doslidzhennya v Ukrayini: zvit za 2002–2004. — K.: KIT, 2004. — S. 7–14.
Alfeld L.E., Graham A.K. Introduction to Urban Dynamics. — Waltham: Pegasus Communications, 1976 — 300 p.
Zvit pro stan navkolyshn'oho pryrodnoho seredovyshcha v misti Kyyevi u 2010 r. / Derzhavne upravlinnya ekolohiyi ta pryrodnykh resursiv v m. Kyyevi. — Kyyiv, 2011. — 122 s.
Forrester J.W. Counterintuitive behavior of social systems // Technology Review 1971. — 73(3). — P. 52–68.
Ermoshin I.S. Sovremennyye sredstva avtomatizirovanogo deshifrirovaniya kosmicheskikh snimkov i ikh ispol’zovaniye v protsesse sozdaniya i obnovleniya kart // ArcReview. — 2009. — № 1. — S. 12–13.
Нuete A., Justice C., van Leeuwen W. MODIS vegetation index (MOD13). Algorithm theoretical basis document. Verion 3. — 1999. — P. 13–25.
Fedorovskiy А.D., Dargeyko L.F., Zubko V.P., YAkimchuk V.G. Sistemnyy podkhod k otsenke effektivnosti apparaturnykh kompleksov distantsionnogo zondirovaniya Zemli // Kosmichna nauka i tekhnolohiya. — 2001. — 7, # 5–6. — S. 75–79.
Heneral'nyy plan m. Kyyeva. Osnovni polozhennya / Vykonavchyy orhan Kyyivs'koyi mis'koyi rady (Kyyivs'ka mis'ka derzhavna administratsiya) komunal'na orhanizatsiya "Instytut heneral'noho planu m. Kyyeva". — Kyyiv, 2011. — 107 s.
Engelen R.J., Serrar S., Chevallier F. Four dimensional data assimilation of atmospheric CO2 using AIRS observations // Journal of Geophysical Research. — 2009. — 114. — Р. 145–159.
NIES. Database of the GOSAT project. Courtesy JAXA/NIES/MOE. 2013. — https://data.gosat.nies.go.jp.
Pratsi Tsentral'noyi heofizychnoyi observatoriyi / Pid red. O.O. Kosovtsya. — K.: Interpres LTD, 2000–2012 rr.
Ohlyad stanu zabrudnennya navkolyshn'oho pryrodnoho seredovyshcha v Ukrayini u pershomu pivrichchi 2013 roku za danymy sposterezhen' merezhi natsional'noyi hidromet·sluzhby Ukrayiny / Derzhavna sluzhba Ukrayiny z nadzvychaynykh sytuatsiy. Tsentral'na heofizychna observatoriya. — Kyyiv, 2013. — S. 23.
Ekolohichnyy pasport Kyyivs'koyi oblasti (2011 r.) / Derzhavnoho upravlinnya okhorony navkolyshn'oho pryrodnoho seredovyshcha v Kyyivs'kiy oblasti. — Kyyiv, 2011. — 154 s.
Korn G., Korn T. Spravochnik po matematike. — M.: Nauka, 1974. — 831 s.
