Decision-making in natural resources use taking into account the risk of lost opportunities based on pairwise comparison of alternatives

Authors

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.20535/SRIT.2308-8893.2016.3.05

Keywords:

alternative, decision-making in nature resources use, optimization, risk of lost opportunities, system risk, total risk

Abstract

The necessity of consideration of the risk of lost opportunities as a component of the total risk in decision-making in environmental management at risk has been justified. The general terms and regulations are formulated and fundamental generalizations, definitions and assertions regarding decision-making in natural resources use taking into account the risk of lost opportunities are presented. The functions are proposed of the total risk of alternatives as linear combinations that combine system (own) risks of alternatives and risks of lost opportunities where last ones are treated as advantageous effects of alternatives that are rejected. The assertion has been formulated that the set of optimal alternatives on the criterion of minimal risk as a result of solving the problem of decision-making while taking into account the risk of lost opportunities coincides with the set of optimal alternatives on the criterion of the maximum utility. It is shown how to determine the components of the total risk of alternatives when filling decision tables on pairwise comparisons of alternatives and algorithms are proposed for choosing the optimal alternative in view of the risk of lost opportunities.

Author Biographies

Yulija D. Stefanyshyna-Gavryliuk, The Institute of Telecommunications and Global Information Space of the NAS of Ukraine, Kyiv, Ukraine

Yulija D. Stefanyshyna-Gavryliuk,

Post-Graduate Student of the Institute of Telecommunications and Global Information Space of the NAS of Ukraine, Kyiv, Ukraine.

Research interests: system analysis, decision making under uncertainty and risk, safety of nature resources use.

Dmytro V. Stefanyshyn, The Institute of Telecommunications and Global Information Space of the NAS of Ukraine, Kyiv, Ukraine

Dmytro V. Stefanyshyn,

Doctor of Science (Eng.), Lead researcher of the Institute of Telecommunications and Global Information Space of the NAS of Ukraine, Kyiv, Ukraine.

Research interests: system analysis, analysis and assessment of risk, decision making under uncertainty and risk, reliability and safety of complex systems.

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Stefanyshyn D.V. A method of decision making at risk in natural resources use by pairwise comparison of alternatives with taking account of risks of lost opportunities / D.V. Stefanyshyn, Yu.D. Stefanyshyna // Proc. Of Int. Scientific School "Modelling and Analysis of Safety and Risk in Complex Systems". — July 7–11, 2009. — S.-Petersburg, Russia. — P. 435–439.

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Published

2016-09-26

Issue

No. 3 (2016)

Section

Theoretical and applied problems of intelligent systems for decision making support

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