The scenario approach and the Bayesian method in assessing the risks of system accidents at hydraulic structures

Authors

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.20535/SRIT.2308-8893.2016.2.11

Keywords:

accident, Bayesian method, model scenario, probability, risk of damages, scenario approach, waterwork

Abstract

Within the scenario approach to forecasting technogenic accidents, the Bayesian method was used to assess the risks of system failures at hydraulic structures. The definitions and assertions relating to the risk of technogenic accidents within the scenario approach were formulated, and a general statement of the problem to quantify the risk of accidents at hydraulic structures within the scenario approach using Bayesian transformation of probabilities of emergency events was performed. It is shown that the scenario approach that uses Bayesian transformation of probabilities allows assessing the total (summary) risk of a system accident at hydraulic structures that can occur due to arbitrary events, including simultaneous, emergency events with different consequences, according to certain model incompatible scenarios of the origin and course of the accident, which form a complete group of events.

Author Biographies

Kateryna G. Romanchuk, Institute of Telecommunications and Global Information Space of the NAS of Ukraine, Kyiv

Kateryna Gennadiivna Romanchuk,

post-graduate student of the Institute of Telecommunications and Global Information Space of the NAS of Ukraine, Kyiv, Ukraine

Research interests: system analysis, analysis and assessment of risk, reliability and safety of complicated systems.

Dmytro V. Stefanyshyn, Institute of Telecommunications and Global Information Space of the NAS of Ukraine, Kyiv

Dmytro Volodymyrovych Stefanyshyn,

Doctor of Science (Eng.), the lead researcher of the Institute of Telecommunications and Global Information Space of the NAS of Ukraine, Kyiv, Ukraine

Research interests: system analysis, analysis and assessment of risk, decision making under uncertainty and risk, reliability and safety of complicated systems.

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Published

2016-06-21

Issue

No. 2 (2016)

Section

Methods of system analysis and control in conditions of risk and uncertainty

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