Complex evaluation of the complex hierarchical-network systems. Part II. Local and forecasting evaluation

Abstract

Methods of complex deterministic evaluation of the complex systems with the hierarchical-network structure are proposed, whose components are the local, forecasting, aggregative, and interactive analysis methods of the state, quality of functioning, and interaction of objects in the system at all hierarchical levels. The local and forecasting evaluation methods of behavior of system’s elements characteristics are described. These methods are the basis for the following construction of generalized conclusions about the system's state and the quality of its functioning. The proposed refined points-based evaluation scale allows not only to determine the quality of an element, but also to partly establish the reasons for detected deficiencies. The forecasting analysis allows to preempt and to respond in a timely manner to the possibility for an element surpassing "the safety threshold". Means for visualization of the local and forecasting evaluations of system’s elements are proposed that can timely react to detected or potential drawbacks. The effectiveness of the proposed methods is illustrated by an example that analyses the quality of rolling stock and infrastructure objects of the rail transport system of Ukraine.