Analysis of the distribution of electoral fields using network structures




Cellular automata, complex networks, electoral field, modularity, modeling public opinion


Approaches based on mathematical modeling to analyze the distribution of electoral fields were studied. Cellular automata and complex network models were analyzed. Cellular automata explain the formation of stable electoral regions, but are poorly suited for the real prediction. The advantage was given to the networks due to the possibility of taking into account the uneven spread of the public opinion. The connection between network communities and formation of stable electoral regions was considered. It is proposed to use the modularity to find the community boundaries which can explain existed electoral fields and predict the distribution of new electoral regions. To verify the selected approach, the distribution of electoral fields of the south of Ukraine was analyzed using data from parliamentary elections in 2014.

Author Biographies

Ievgen O. Terpil, ESC Institute for Applied System Analysis at National Technical University of Ukraine "KPI", Kyiv, Ukraine

Terpil Ievgen

PhD student at ESC Institute for Applied System Analysis at National Technical University of Ukraine "KPI", Kyiv, Ukraine

O. S. Makarenko, ESC "Institute for Applied System Analysis" at NTUU "KPI, Kyiv, Ukraine

Makarenko Alexander,

professor, head of applied nonlinear analysis department, ESC "Institute for Applied System Analysis" at NTUU "KPI, Kyiv, Ukraine


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Theoretical and applied problems of intelligent systems for decision making support