Modeling and optimal decision-making to support the stability of the consumer price index

Abstract

The model of the dynamics of the consumer price index (CPI) with multirate sampling is developed. The model inputs are served with seven disturbances and two controls which determine decision-making: interest rate on the interbank market at UAH maturity overnight and interest rate on domestic securities of the Ministry of Finance with 3 years maturity. The dynamics of disturbances and controls in retrospective are shown. Also mathematical and economic analysis of CPI model coefficients is conducted and the main properties of this model are described. To ensure the stability of CPI the designing of the optimal law of decision-making based on the minimization of the criterion of optimality in the form of the generalized variance of CPI and control, is done. On the basis of synthesized law of decision-making the formula for optimal controls in discrete form is defined. A digital modeling based on historical data and synthesized criteria of optimality is implemented. On the basis of the analysis of digital modeling it is established that the use of optimal law of decisions-making provides reduction of generalized variance CPI in 5 time at average.