A probabilistic approach to the assessment of the prospects of buying the business from the point of view of a particular investor


  • Yuriy A. Zack




cost of buying a business, discounted cash flows, the residual assets of the company, the probability distribution, stochastic risk assessment


In accordance with individual plans for a particular investor, a number of indicators of the volume of expected cash flows, the values of coefficients for discounting, as well as the probability distribution of each of these values and the values of "the discounted income" for each year of operation and for the entire predicted ownership period are determined. This probability distribution sums up the probability distribution amount of residual assets. The estimated probability distribution of the resulting sum of the values of these components determines the values of the stochastic estimation of the business value for a given investor. In contrast to conventional approaches, the proposed stochastic valuation will allow the investor to evaluate more objectively the various risk factors when buying the company, determine the probability that the difference between the value of the company proposed by its present owner, will not be lower or higher than the specified in advance value of the expected profit.

Author Biography

Yuriy A. Zack

Yuriy A. Zack,

Ph.D. (Dokt.-Ing. Deutschland),

a scientific expert and consultant, Aachen, Germany.


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